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EGBS: Details Of German Vote Split Limits Downside In Bund Futures

EGBS
BulletEurozoneFixed Income BulletsMarkets

Details of the German election vote split has limited downside in Bund futures this morning. Although the CDU is in a strong position to form a 'grand coalition' with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), debt brake reform will only be possible with support from the far-left progressive Die Linke party. 

  • Bund futures are -10 ticks versus Friday’s settlement levels at 132.28, up from a session low of 132.02. Friday’s rebound in futures appears corrective for now, with key short-term resistance defined at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. Initial firm support is 131.26, the Feb 19 low and the bear trigger.
  • German cash yields are now little changed on Friday’s close, with the curve lightly steepening.
  • The German February IFO survey was mixed versus expectations, but directionally mirrored Friday's flash PMI release across manufacturing/services sectors. Eurozone final Jan HICP confirmed flash estimates at 2.5% Y/Y for headline and 2.7% Y/Y for core.
  • 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are up to 0.5bps tighter on the day.
  • EU-bond and Belgian OLO supply is due this morning.
  • The remainder of today’s regional calendar is light.

 

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Details of the German election vote split has limited downside in Bund futures this morning. Although the CDU is in a strong position to form a 'grand coalition' with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), debt brake reform will only be possible with support from the far-left progressive Die Linke party. 

  • Bund futures are -10 ticks versus Friday’s settlement levels at 132.28, up from a session low of 132.02. Friday’s rebound in futures appears corrective for now, with key short-term resistance defined at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. Initial firm support is 131.26, the Feb 19 low and the bear trigger.
  • German cash yields are now little changed on Friday’s close, with the curve lightly steepening.
  • The German February IFO survey was mixed versus expectations, but directionally mirrored Friday's flash PMI release across manufacturing/services sectors. Eurozone final Jan HICP confirmed flash estimates at 2.5% Y/Y for headline and 2.7% Y/Y for core.
  • 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are up to 0.5bps tighter on the day.
  • EU-bond and Belgian OLO supply is due this morning.
  • The remainder of today’s regional calendar is light.