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Deutsche Bank economists Brett......>

US DATA PREVIEW: Deutsche Bank economists Brett Ryan and Matthew Luzzetti expect
at Fri 8:30 am ET Sept. nonfarm payroll employment "only a 50k gain on headline
nonfarm payrolls (+50k private)" but still "this may be enough to keep the
unemployment rate steady at 4.4%."
- They add "weather workers series" in "Household survey should provide a
reasonable sense of the magnitude of the hurricane-related disruptions to the
payroll data."
- They cited "considerable uncertainty around our payroll forecast and Wed ADP
survey (+50k forecast vs. +237k previously) may provide further clues." But it's
"also important to remember" in 2005, "it took a couple of months for payrolls
to recover" as "initially-reported Oct.2005 payroll gain was just 56k
(subsequently revised up to 84k) and it wasn't until November 2005 that payrolls
finally bounced - the initially reported figure was 215k (subsequently revised
up to 341k). This is something to keep in mind given that Hurricane Harvey was
followed by 2 other major storms (Irma and Maria) that impacted large swaths of
the Gulf Coast as well as some parts of the Eastern Seaboard."

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