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COLOMBIA: Deutsche Bank Retains Bearish Bias On COP

COLOMBIA
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  • Deutsche Bank is of the view that the external and domestic challenges that drove BanRep to slow the easing pace last week will not dissipate materially in the near future. While they continue to see a pause once the policy rate reaches 7.5%, they see a different path to that point, with another 25bp cut to follow in January.
  • After that, however, changes in the composition of the Board will likely tilt the majority to the more dovish camp, in their view. Thus, they see a potential return to the 50bp per meeting pace afterwards through June, followed by a 25bp cut in July.
  • Despite the high carry, DB expects fiscal concerns to continue to weigh on the currency, in a context of higher external uncertainty. Given their baseline of further monetary easing throughout H1 2025, they see limited scope for retracement and continue to have a bearish bias on COP, especially considering that BanRep’s increased caution may be short-lived.
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  • Deutsche Bank is of the view that the external and domestic challenges that drove BanRep to slow the easing pace last week will not dissipate materially in the near future. While they continue to see a pause once the policy rate reaches 7.5%, they see a different path to that point, with another 25bp cut to follow in January.
  • After that, however, changes in the composition of the Board will likely tilt the majority to the more dovish camp, in their view. Thus, they see a potential return to the 50bp per meeting pace afterwards through June, followed by a 25bp cut in July.
  • Despite the high carry, DB expects fiscal concerns to continue to weigh on the currency, in a context of higher external uncertainty. Given their baseline of further monetary easing throughout H1 2025, they see limited scope for retracement and continue to have a bearish bias on COP, especially considering that BanRep’s increased caution may be short-lived.