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Deutsche FOMC Review: "Status Check" On The Recovery

FED

Deutsche saw the April FOMC as a "status check on the economic recovery", with a "mild surprise" being the removal of the qualifier of "considerable" in describing the risks posed by the pandemic to the outlook.

  • Powell repeated the phrase "substantial further progress" 13 times. To assess this progress, Deutsche points to its own proprietary labor market indicators that capture distributional metrics, and trend inflation / common inflation expectations indices.
  • Future action: Deutsche still sees the Jackson Hole meeting as a potential point to formally flesh out the case for tapering, with an official announcement at the Dec FOMC.
  • Powell's comments suggested that technical adjustments to administered rates " are likely forthcoming should further downward pressure materialize in the coming months", per Deutsche.
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