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Deutsche: Meaningful Slowdown In Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Deutsche sees a "meaningful slowdown" in nonfarm payrolls growth in June, to +225k (vs +390k prior, +265k consensus), with private payrolls at +200k (vs +333k prior, +235 consensus).

  • However, their analysts see the unemployment rate dropping 0.1pp to 3.5%, which would be back to February 2020 levels.
  • Deutsche also expects hours worked to remain steady (34.6) but average hourly earnings growth to remain robust (+0.3%).
  • They point out that a divergence between initial jobless claims rising vs continuing claims around record lows may be explained by "still-robust labor demand [which] means that workers do not stay unemployed for very long."
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