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Deutsche Near Top Of Payrolls Consensus With Risk Of 3.3% U/E Rate

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Deutsche Bank are very near the top of consensus with a call of 300k payrolls growth in February (private 300k) given mild weather once again during the survey week.
  • In January, the leisure and hospitality sector added 128k jobs (vs 3mma 83k) and the same can be said for other weather-prone sectors such as retail trade (+30k in January vs. -17k 3mma).
  • Heating degree days relative to normal for the February survey week were -30, which while not as mild as the January survey week (-43), still point to upside risks for these sectors given the unusually mild weather.
  • Equally as important will be hours worked (34.6hrs vs. 34.7hrs), which were also likely boosted by the aforementioned mild weather.
  • They see AHE holding at 0.3% M/M. It would raise the Y/Y growth rate 30bps to 4.7% but Fed officials are likely to focus more on the near-term trend where the 3-mth annualized rate would fall by around 50bps to 4.1%.
  • They see the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.4% but there is risk it rounds down to 3.3% should participation contract slightly.
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