Free Trial

Deutsche: Nov Nonfarms Held Back By Education Weakness

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Deutsche sees a higher November nonfarm payrolls figure than consensus (+600k vs +545k Bloomberg median), but a much higher private jobs number (+650k vs +525k expected).

  • The discrepancy is due to their expectation that state and local education jobs "may once again be impacted by the seasonal factor".
  • Overall, they expect hiring gains to be led by leisure/hospitality, retail, and administrative/waste services, and "would also not be surprised to see couriers and messengers outperform given still-elevated online sales.
  • They're in line for avg hourly earnings (+0.4% M/M) and average weekly hours (34.7), but see a bigger dip in the unemployment rate (-0.2pp to 4.4%, vs 4.5% expected).
  • That's because they see just under 0.1pp increase in the participation rate, for which more broadly, "Covid remains the biggest driver ".
  • They say "most important for Fed officials will be progress on prime age labor force participation (ages 25-54)", which is likely to remain short of pre-Covid highs "until the pandemic is under control to an extent that allows potential workers to predictably forecast caregiving needs".

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.