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Free AccessDeutsche Pares 2024 Cut Forecast From 100bp to 25bp
Deutsche now expects just one Fed rate cut in 2024 (in December) "followed by modest further reductions in 2025" to a "neutral level that is likely just below 4% by the end of 2026." Previously they'd seen a first cut of 25bp in June, with a total of 100bp of 2024 cuts.
- "Recent developments – namely, upside inflation prints, solid labor market data, and easing financial conditions – have clearly diminished the case for commencing rate cuts...A reduction in July is possible, though it likely requires a string of more favorable inflation prints than we currently forecast."
- Their trajectory includes 0.3% core PCE prints for both March and April which doesn't meet the 0.2% threshold likely required for the FOMC to gain sufficient confidence to cut in summer.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.