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Free AccessDeutsche: Raising 2022 Hike View To 5 From 4
Deutsche now sees 5 25bp Fed rate hikes in 2022 (vs 4 previously) in light of Powell’s emphasis of a “nimble policy response” that “heightens the importance of evidence that inflation pressures are waning”.
- In other words, “in the absence of clear evidence in support of [waning inflation pressures], we think the Fed tightens at each meeting” from March through June, returning to a quarterly hiking profile before year-end “as they see clearer evidence of falling inflation”.
- Rest of views largely unchanged: continue to see 3 2023 hikes (terminal rate 2.00-2.25%), and QT caps released in May, followed by official QT announcement in July.
- “the implication at this meeting was that the pace of rate tightening post-liftoff could well be faster than during the last cycle”.
- Re hiking at every meeting, and/or 50bp increments, “While [Powell] was clear that the Committee has not made these decisions – and he did not rule out these scenarios – it was evident that the different starting point implies a much higher probability of these more aggressive decisions”.
- Deutsche notes the new “principles” on balance sheet reduction were identical to the Sep 2014 edition.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.