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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
Deutsche expects the highlight of the June FOMC meeting to be "a status check on the Committee's tapering deliberations."
- Median funds dot unchanged for 2023 hike (in a "close call"). GDP in 2021 up sharply (6.9%), unemp rate down to 4.4%; core PCE up to 2.9%. Only modest change lower to 2022 growth, 2023 unchanged; unemp and inflation unchanged 2022-23.
- Powell to indicate that the FOMC discussed what economic conditions they would like to see to begin tapering; likely to indicate that FOMC believes it will take some time for "substantial further progress"; and that all agreed it was not yet time to taper.
- Powell to repeat bottlenecks narrative on inflation, but "is also likely to note that there is a lot of uncertainty about how long it will take for these bottlenecks to be resolved and for price pressures to moderate".
- Administered rates: No change; Powell to note that will make as needed in future to ensure that the Funds rate remains within the target range, and in any case would be technical in nature.
- Deutsche also sees an "outside chance" of an announcement on a standing repo facility.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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