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Diesel and Gasoline Cracks Extend Rally on Supply Uncertainty

OIL PRODUCTS

Diesel and gasoline crack spreads continue to rally on the back of supply concerns and despite weak near term demand.

  • Supply risks following the EU ban on Russian products from 5 Feb have been adding upside pressure to spreads this year. The EU Gasoil-Brent spread is up from 30.3$/bbl on 5 Jan to nearly 41$/bbl. The EU gasoline-Brent spread is up from 7$/bbl to 17.5$/bbl.
  • The potential for further French strikes after disruption at refineries yesterday is adding to the European supply uncertainty.
  • Europe is trying to fill storage ahead of the ban with higher supplies from Middle East, US and China although US diesel supplies to Europe have been cut in Jan due refinery outages in the US.
  • Data released this week showed European ARA Gasoil stocks just 6.4% below the five year average, US distillate stocks are 19.4% below and Singapore Middle Distillates 28.2% below average.
    • US gasoline crack up 1.3$/bbl at 30.36$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 1.6$/bbl at 63.15$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 1.9$/bbl at 17.64$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent up 1$/bbl at 40.88$/bbl
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