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Direct Line: Ageas Dropping Bid Could Lead To DLG Spread Widening

FINANCIALS

Direct Line (DLG LN) credit could widen on Ageas’ bid abandonment.


  • Direct Line only has two sub-benchmark GBP bonds out there but its ’32 sub debt (DLGLN 4 06/05/32) has rallied meaningfully (50bp to c.250bp OAS) since the bid was announced.
  • If we assume that BNP’s interest in Ageas pushes the latter to abandon its bid for DLG (to shore up its own defences), the above rally could well revert relatively quickly. Obviously all of the above is relatively uncertain but BNP has size and industrial logic on its side right now.
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