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Divergence Between Colombia and Brazil Swap Rates

LATAM
  • Colombian swap rates rose to a record Thursday, reversing the drop that followed the first round of the presidential election, amid uncertainty over the runoff and an increase in US Treasury yields.
  • Two-year IBR swaps have risen to 9.34% only one week after falling significantly following the first-round election.
  • In direct contrast, the Brazilian DI swaps curve has seen a relief rally following the below consensus IPCA inflation prints, released earlier on Thursday. Jan ‘24 DI’s have fallen 22 basis points, reversing the entirety of the shift higher earlier in the week, prompted by renewed fiscal concerns over the government’s fuel price initiative.
  • Brazil DI Swaps:
    • Jan '23 -11 bps at 13.38%
    • Jan ’24 -22bps at 13.00%
    • Jan '26 -15 bps at 12.425%
    • Jan '31 -5 bps at 12.67%
  • Colombia IBR Swaps:
    • 1-yr +8 bps at 9.44%
    • 2-yr +12 bps at 9.34%
    • 5-yr +14 bps at 9.095%
    • 10-yr +15 bps at 9.02%
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