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DNB: Expect Norges Bank Hold In December

NORGES BANK

DNB now see weaker Norwegian mainland GDP and wage growth in 2024. They have also marked down expectations re: price pressures.

  • This comes in the wake of the Q4 Regional Network Survey growth figures, which signalled "a weakened outlook for activity in the Norwegian economy".
  • DNB also note that "forward rates for Norway’s main trading partners have fallen" and the lower oil price "contributes to dampen the outlook for the economy".
  • Elsewhere, they highlight the expectations survey signalling lower expectations for wage growth.
  • As a result, they write "it is a very close call, but as we know that Norges Bank is eager to avoid an overtightening, we believe the odds now have turned in favour of a rate hike pause in December".
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