MNI BRIEF: Italian Business See Prices At 1.5% In 2025 -BOI

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, January 14

MNI NBP WATCH: Rate Hold Seen After Governor's Hawkish Tilt

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Ensure Yuan Stable, Ease For Economy: Xuan

MNI BRIEF: China Yields Will Reflect Fundamentals - PBOC

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BT Auction on Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Germany Auction on Wednesday

MNI: US DEC TREASURY BUDGET -$86.7B

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

FOREX: Dollar Index Pulls Back 0.5%, EURGBP Prints Four-Month High

FOREX
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • The ICE USD index sits half a percent lower on the session Tuesday, as the greenback extends a moderate retreat ahead of the key CPI data tomorrow. Softer-than-expected PPI data helped the greenback consolidate overnight weakness, with higher long-end US yields and lower equities unable to support the dollar.
  • It is clear that the Fed will hold in January, with the first plausibly “live” meeting not until March. But with pricing having shifted so quickly away from 2025 cuts, it’s a good juncture to assess whether markets have gotten too hawkish, with the greenback potentially vulnerable to a deeper correction.
  • Price action has seen EURUSD briefly climb back to the 1.0300 handle, rising 0.5% on the session. Higher German yields have been supportive of the single currency at the margin, further evidenced by EURGBP rising to a 4-month high of 0.8451.
  • As noted, a sustained breach of 0.8448 resistance would signal scope for a move towards 0.8494, the August 26 high. Separately, the August highs reside at 0.8625, which could garner attention should UK fiscal concerns/uncertainty deteriorate further. Both the 20-day and 50-day EMA’s represent initial support for the cross, currently intersecting around 0.8325. UK CPI is due early Wednesday.
  • Overall, broad pressure on core fixed income continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, with EURJPY extending its intra-day advance to 0.8% and now 260 pips above the Monday lows around the psychological 160.00 mark. USDJPY has also risen back to 158.00, as market participants continue to weigh rhetoric from Japanese officials ahead of the January BOJ decision.
254 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • The ICE USD index sits half a percent lower on the session Tuesday, as the greenback extends a moderate retreat ahead of the key CPI data tomorrow. Softer-than-expected PPI data helped the greenback consolidate overnight weakness, with higher long-end US yields and lower equities unable to support the dollar.
  • It is clear that the Fed will hold in January, with the first plausibly “live” meeting not until March. But with pricing having shifted so quickly away from 2025 cuts, it’s a good juncture to assess whether markets have gotten too hawkish, with the greenback potentially vulnerable to a deeper correction.
  • Price action has seen EURUSD briefly climb back to the 1.0300 handle, rising 0.5% on the session. Higher German yields have been supportive of the single currency at the margin, further evidenced by EURGBP rising to a 4-month high of 0.8451.
  • As noted, a sustained breach of 0.8448 resistance would signal scope for a move towards 0.8494, the August 26 high. Separately, the August highs reside at 0.8625, which could garner attention should UK fiscal concerns/uncertainty deteriorate further. Both the 20-day and 50-day EMA’s represent initial support for the cross, currently intersecting around 0.8325. UK CPI is due early Wednesday.
  • Overall, broad pressure on core fixed income continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, with EURJPY extending its intra-day advance to 0.8% and now 260 pips above the Monday lows around the psychological 160.00 mark. USDJPY has also risen back to 158.00, as market participants continue to weigh rhetoric from Japanese officials ahead of the January BOJ decision.