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Dollar Off European Morning Lows - But Only Just

FOREX
  • After a softer start to the session across Asia-Pac trade and the European morning, the dollar is off lows, dragging the EUR/USD rate off overnight highs at 1.0657. While the USD is inching more favourably, the USD Index is still in close proximity to the intraday supports at 104.345 and 104.093 for the USD Index.
  • At the top end of the table, CHF outperforms following a higher-than-expected outturn for February CPI. M/M inflation rose to 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.5%, while Y/Y rose to 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.1%. EUR/CHF slipped to 0.9924 in response, putting the cross at the lowest level since Feb28.
  • AUD, NZD trade to the bottom end of the G10 table, prompting AUD/USD to fade ahead of the test on the 200-dma resistance at 0.6789, mimicking the moderation US equity futures ahead of the Monday open. Moves in commodity-tied currencies follow the decision on China's GDP growth target for this year - a more conservative 5% relative to expectations.
  • Focus Monday shifts to the January Factor Order release from the US as well as the final durable goods orders report for the same month. Canadian interest lies in the Ivey PMI for February.
  • Outside of Monday, risk events and activity pick up later in the week, with rate decisions due from the Australian, Canadian and Japanese central banks before Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report.
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