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Dollar Strength Prevails, JPY Out Of Favour

FOREX
  • The dollar index (+0.16%) is likely to post a 5-day winning streak as markets appear optimistic regarding the upcoming June non-farm payrolls data, with the whisper number at a slightly more bullish 800k, vs. 720k estimates.
  • USDJPY broke some strong technical resistance through 111.12 overnight and very supportive action throughout Thursday ensued. Approaching the close, USDJPY is on the highs around 1.1165, up 0.5% on the day.
  • Interest has been building in topside USD strikes, most notably at Y111.75 in USD/JPY, at which over $2bln in call options are due to expire at the post-NFP NY cut. This would narrow the gap with key resistance at the 112.23 Feb 20, 2020 high.
  • Initially, EURUSD bounced from noted Fibonacci retracement support at 1.1837 with a fairly swift rally back to 1.1884, showing relative outperformance. However, with dollar momentum growing throughout the US session, the lows are being approached once more. A positive surprise from tomorrow's data may prompt a sustained break that would open 1.1704, Mar 31 low and a key support.
  • Elsewhere both GBP and AUD retreated by 0.5%, with slightly smaller losses seen for CAD (-0.35) and NZD (-0.26%). Emerging market currencies bore the brunt of the dollar strength with both ZAR and BRL down well over 1%.
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