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Dollar Supported, But Limited Follow Through Gains
A positive bias has been evident in most USD/Asia pairs today, although follow through USD gains have been limited. USD/CNH couldn't hold a move above 6.9000, while USD/KRW found selling interest above 1330. Recent PHP underperformance continued. Still to come is Taiwan export orders for March and RBI policy minutes. Tomorrow, we get the first 20-days trade data in South Korea (for April) along with the PPI.
- USD/CNH got to 6.9030, but we now sit back closer to 6.8980. As expected, the LPRs were left unchanged, while the CNY fixing was close to neutral. Onshore China equites have weakened further but we are still seeing northbound flows via the stock connect.
- 1 month USD/KRW saw selling interest close to 1330, but hasn't been able to sustain breaks sub 1325 on the downside, which also coincides with the 200-day MA. Onshore equities are weaker, while offshore investors have sold over $200mn of local shares so far today. Tomorrow's first 20-days trade data for April will present a timely update on external demand.
- USD/INR is relatively steady (last 82.20/25), leaving the rupee outperforming at the margins. USD/INR firmed through the 20-Day EMA (82.17) yesterday and sits a touch off its highest level since early April. On Tuesday Global Investors sold ~$67mn in Indian equities, this was the first outflow since late March. The RBI Minutes of the April policy meeting where the bank unexpectedly kept interest rates on hold are on tap today.
- USD/PHP has continued to push higher, +0.25% to the 56.35/40 region. Comments from Socioeconomic Secretary Balisacan stated the country wants to achieve a stable exchange rate, with too much weakness a financial stability risk. Still, the Secretary stated weakness can improve export competitiveness. PHP is comfortably the weakest performer within EM Asia month to date.
- USD/MYR is down a touch to 4.4360, meeting resistance above 4.4400 in recent sessions. March CPI printed a short time ago at 3.4%Y/Y below the expected 3.6%. CPI fell from 3.7% Y/Y seen in February. Today's release is the lowest print since June 2022. Core also continued to edge down from recent highs, coming in at 3.8% y/y. The prints are likely to add to view that BNM remains on hold for now.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.