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Modi, AMLO Top Major Economy Leader Poll, Macron Last


Under Pressure


Trend Condition Remains Bearish

DOLLAR-THB : VIEW: Goldman Sachs note that "since early Apr, THB has
outperformed its NJA peers. Accordingly, the BoT have suggested that they are
ready to step up measures to curb THB strength. However, with the US Tsy report
due to be released shortly, and the fact that Thailand was mentioned in the last
report, we think the BoT may step back on its intervention/smoothing operations,
which merits a neutral outlook near-term. Thailand has already surpassed at
least 2/3 criteria for determining whether a country can be labeled a "currency
manipulator", per the US Tsy criteria. The 3rd criterion pertains to whether
Thailand engaged in persistent one-sided intervention, and the BoT may be keen
to avoid being seen as satisfying this. We think any measures to stem inflows
will only have marginal impact on THB near-term & even less so medium-term, as
we think the main driver of THB strength is an inability to recycle the current
a/c. It is this consideration that underpins our bearish view on the Baht over
the medium term. In particular, although lockdown measures have been relaxed,
which should lead to a pick-up in domestic consumption, we do not envisage a
pick-up in international tourism anytime soon."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |