Free Trial

Dovish Moves Extend In SONIA, 60bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced

STIR

SONIA futures rally after the recent round of risk-off trade deepened in Asia-Pac hours.

  • That leaves contracts 1.5-14.0bp firmer through the blues, with the late whites & early reds leading the move.
  • SFIZ4 & Z5 hit the highest levels seen since early February, with bulls now targeting the early February highs in both those contracts (96.040 & 96.750, respectively).
  • BoE-dated OIS moves to price ~16bp of cuts through next month’s meeting and a cumulative 60bp of cuts through year end vs. ~11bp & ~48bp late on Friday.
  • Final UK services PMI data is due today, but expect the broader market tone to dominate.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-244.786-16.4
Nov-244.533-41.8
Dec-244.348-60.2
Feb-254.128-82.2
Mar-253.973-97.7
May-253.798-115.3
Jun-253.703-124.7

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.