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Dovish Push In BoE Pricing Post-U.S. PPI

STIR

As noted elsewhere, softer-than-expected U.S. PPI data and related perceptions surrounding the upcoming U.S. PCE print dominate recent trade, promoting receiver-side flows in core global STIR markets.

  • SONIA futures are flat to +10.5 through the blues, with the front of the reds leading the bid. Contracts generally sit a little off post-data bests.
  • Meanwhile, BoE-dated OIS is 0.5-9.0bp lower on the day through ’24 MPC meetings.
  • ~130bp of cuts are priced through ’24 (a ~3bp dovish move vs. pre-U.S. PPI readings), ~3bp off dovish session extremes, which also represented the most dovish levels printed this week.
  • Further forward ~22.5bp of cuts are now priced through the May ’24 MPC.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-245.200+1.2
Mar-245.133-5.5
May-244.965-22.3
Jun-244.761-42.7
Aug-244.508-68.0
Sep-244.281-90.7
Nov-244.055-113.3
Dec-243.891-129.7
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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