January 09, 2025 14:28 GMT
STIR: Dovish Rebound Extends, 51.5bp of BoE Cuts Priced For '25
STIR
Correction from hawkish session/cycle extremes continues as gilts edge further away from lows.
- UK news flow limited since this morning.
- ~51.5bp of BoE cuts now priced through year end vs. ~39bp at one stage today.
- SONIA futures flat to +4.0. Contracts as much as 16.5 off session lows.
- The market-implied rate cutting profile continues to look flat to us, although sticky UK inflation, fiscal risks and the recent hawkish repricing in the U.S. present headwinds to dovish positions.
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-25
4.526
-17.4
Mar-25
4.494
-20.6
May-25
4.385
-31.5
Jun-25
4.354
-34.6
Aug-25
4.289
-41.1
Sep-25
4.259
-44.1
Nov-25
4.204
-49.6
Dec-25
4.184
-51.6
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