Dovish SONIA Move On U.S. Data, ~33bp Of ’24 BoE Cuts Priced

SONIA futures have generally extended higher in the wake of the U.S. data, which takes the hawkish edge of this week’s price action, leaving SFIZ4 & Z5 at/a little above last Friday’s closing levels.

• Contracts are flat to +7.0 through the blues, with the late reds and greens leading the rally.
• BoE-dated OIS moves to price ~33bp of ’24 cuts vs. ~30bp seen during much of today’s session.
• A full 25bp cut Is once again fully discounted come the end of the November MPC.
• Final PMI data and the BoE’s DMP survey headline next week’s local calendar.
• Expect UK headlines to remain centred on election matters.
• A reminder that BoE rhetoric, outside of scheduled policy meetings, is suspended until after the July 4 election.