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Downside Risk To Australian House Prices

AUSTRALIA

Barrenjoey, a bank, is forecasting that house prices in Sydney are likely to fall significantly more than the 10% predicted by the RBA, as reported by the Australian. It is talking about Sydney house prices contracting 25% based on its rate forecasts but 30% if market expectations are used.

  • Barrenjoey also noted that mortgage payments as a share of disposable have risen to 49% from their pandemic low of 34%. This should rise further as the RBA rate hikes continue.
  • Long-term house prices should be supported by investors, as rental growth is currently growing at a double-digit pace.
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