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Downside risks to both gilts and sterling FX from the UK election (1/2)

UK
  • The polls all point to a sizeable Labour majority and anything other than that would be a huge surprise at this point. We think there are downside risks to both sterling FX and gilts from either a small or very large Labour majority - but a 75-130 seat majority is largely priced.
  • So a majority of less than 50 would probably see a negative market reaction for both sterling and gilts. Markets hate uncertainty and instability, and a relatively small Labour majority would likely see concerns that Starmer and Reeves could have to compromise their more centrist programme to satisfy more of the harder leftwing MPs.
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