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Free AccessDownside Risks to German CPI Following State Prints
- The German regional CPI readings for June saw 0.2-0.6pp decelerations across the board.
- The state readings published this morning account for 67.3% of the total June rate. Out state-weighted calculation of the German June CPI rate accounts for 67.3% of the total print and sees inflation at +7.6%, which would imply a 0.3pp slowdown from May.
- Our calculation expects substantial downside risks to the consensus forecast of inflation flatlining at +7.9% y/y in Germany's index, and the 0.1pp uptick anticipated for the harmonised print to +8.8% y/y. The release time is 1300 BST.
June y/y | May y/y | Difference | Destatis Weighting | |
North Rhine Westphalia | 7.5 | 8.1 | -0.6 | 21.7% |
Hesse | 8.1 | 8.4 | -0.3 | 7.7% |
Bavaria | 7.9 | 8.1 | -0.2 | 16.8% |
Brandenburg | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | 2.6% |
Baden Wuert. | 7.1 | 7.4 | -0.3 | 14.1% |
Saxony | 7.7 | 8.0 | -0.3 | 4.4% |
Total: 67.3% | ||||
Weighted average: | +7.62% y/y | for | 67.3% of total CPI |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.