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Downside Risks to German CPI Following State Prints

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)
  • The German regional CPI readings for June saw 0.2-0.6pp decelerations across the board.
  • The state readings published this morning account for 67.3% of the total June rate. Out state-weighted calculation of the German June CPI rate accounts for 67.3% of the total print and sees inflation at +7.6%, which would imply a 0.3pp slowdown from May.
  • Our calculation expects substantial downside risks to the consensus forecast of inflation flatlining at +7.9% y/y in Germany's index, and the 0.1pp uptick anticipated for the harmonised print to +8.8% y/y. The release time is 1300 BST.

June y/yMay y/yDifferenceDestatis Weighting
North Rhine Westphalia7.58.1-0.621.7%
Hesse8.18.4-0.37.7%
Bavaria7.98.1-0.216.8%
Brandenburg88.5-0.52.6%
Baden Wuert.7.17.4-0.314.1%
Saxony 7.78.0-0.34.4%

Total: 67.3%
Weighted average:+7.62% y/yfor 67.3% of total CPI

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