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Downside Surprise in Core CPI

SPAIN DATA

Spanish October flash HICP came in below consensus estimates at at 3.5% Y/Y (vs 3.8% cons; 3.3% prior) and 0.3% M/M (vs 0.5% cons; 0.6% prior). The national CPI also below consensus at 3.5% Y/Y (vs 3.9% cons; 3.5% prior). On monthly basis, CPI was 0.3% M/M (vs 0.7% cons; 0.2% prior).

  • Most important however was the six-tenths deceleration in core CPI to 5.2% (vs 5.6% cons; 5/8% prior).
  • Downside drivers to the headline rate came from fuel and food/non-alcoholic beverage prices, while electricity contributed to the upside.
  • Overall, this month's deceleration seems broad-based, with energy inflating less than expected and services/core goods components bringing down the core rate.
  • The chart below plots headline vs core CPI:

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