March 30, 2023 07:15 GMT
Downside Surprise to HICP in March
SPAIN MAR FLASH HICP +1.1% M/M (FCST +1.6%); FEB +0.9% M/M
SPAIN MAR FLASH HICP +3.1% Y/Y (FCST +3.7%); FEB +6.0% Y/Y
SPAIN MAR FLASH CORE CPI +7.5% Y/Y (FCST +7.6%); FEB +7.6% Y/Y
- Spain kicked off this month’s round of flash euro inflation data. HICP cooled by 2.9pp to +3.1% y/y; the lowest annualised rate since July 2021 and 0.6pp below consensus expectations. According to the Spanish Statistics Institute, easing energy and fuel prices accounted for the bulk of downwards inflationary pressure in March.
- Harmonised prices rose by +1.1% m/m, implying that short-term price pressures remain acute.
- Spanish core CPI (non-harmonised) edged down by 0.1pp to +7.5% y/y in the March flash, despite marginal this was the first easing in five months.
- German flash inflation data for March is also due today at 1300 BST after a slew of state CPI prints. The NRW CPI print this morning (accounting for 21.1% of the national print) cooled by 1.6pp to +6.9% y/y. Further data due over the next two hours will create a clearer picture of whether German CPI is also likely to surprise to the downside.
Spanish CPI vs CPI Core (y/y):
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