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Downwards Revision to GDP to Drag on EZ

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY Q4 GDP FINAL -0.4% Q/Q (FLASH -0.2%); Q3 +0.5% Q/Q

GERMANY Q4 GDP FINAL +0.9% Y/Y (FLASH +1.1%); Q3 +1.4% Y/Y

  • German GDP was revised down by 0.2pp on both the quarter to -0.4% q/q, and on the year to +0.9% y/y.
  • This downward revision to the largest eurozone economy, if combined with downward revisions from other countries, could push the eurozone economy into contractionary territory in Q4 (final print due March 8).
  • Private consumption and capital formation slowed markedly into year-end. The high cost of living and weak sentiment saw household consumption fall -1.0% q/q (vs -0.6% expected), after +0.7% in Q3 boosted by fuel discounts and the 9-euro transport ticket scheme.
  • Investment contracted by -2.5% q/q, significantly outpacing the -0.6% expected by consensus.
  • Net exports fell by -1.0% q/q on the back of weak global demand, worsened by high energy prices and persistent supply disruptions.

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