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Durable Goods Revisions Offset April Beat

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  • Core durable goods orders were stronger than expected in preliminary April data at 0.3% M/M (cons 0.1) but with downward revisions heavily offsetting with -0.1% in March (initial 0.1%).
  • There’s a similar story in core shipments data, beating with 0.4% M/M (cons 0.1) but after a downward revised -0.3% (initial 0.0%).
  • Shipments have languished recently, at exactly 0.0% annualized on a 3M/3M basis vs 0.3% three months prior, but orders suggest some strength ahead with a 1.4% annualized increase.
  • There continues to be a disconnect with surveys: the ISM manufacturing survey falling heavily into implied contractionary territory in 2H23 only partly weighed on durable goods activity (at least in nominal terms) but equally the former's recent recovery hasn’t had much impact on latest orders.

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  • Core durable goods orders were stronger than expected in preliminary April data at 0.3% M/M (cons 0.1) but with downward revisions heavily offsetting with -0.1% in March (initial 0.1%).
  • There’s a similar story in core shipments data, beating with 0.4% M/M (cons 0.1) but after a downward revised -0.3% (initial 0.0%).
  • Shipments have languished recently, at exactly 0.0% annualized on a 3M/3M basis vs 0.3% three months prior, but orders suggest some strength ahead with a 1.4% annualized increase.
  • There continues to be a disconnect with surveys: the ISM manufacturing survey falling heavily into implied contractionary territory in 2H23 only partly weighed on durable goods activity (at least in nominal terms) but equally the former's recent recovery hasn’t had much impact on latest orders.