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Dust Settles as Pelosi Set to Depart Taiwan

FOREX
  • US Treasury yields are holding the bulk of the Tuesday rally, with the 10y oscillating either side of the 2.75% level. This keeps currency markets in line, with markets holding the bulk of Tuesday's greenback strength. As a result, EUR/USD remains below 1.02, with USD/JPY close to 3 points above the week's lows.
  • Gains are considered corrective - for now. Recent weakness has resulted in the break of a number of important technical chart points. A bull channel breakout - drawn from the Mar 4 low - signals a short-term reversal.
  • For equity markets, the dust has settled somewhat following Pelosi's visit to Taiwan yesterday, with the e-mini S&P holding above 4,100 as the House Speaker departs Taipei and concludes the visit shortly. While China announced a series of trade measures against Taiwan and tabled an extended series of war games around the island, the broader impact is seen as limited as this stage.
  • NOK is the firmest currency so far, closely followed by SEK. The CHF and NZD hold at the bottom of the G10 pile.
  • Focus turns to the final PMI data from the US, as well as June factory orders. ISM Services numbers also cross, and are expected to show a slowing to 53.5 from June's 55.3. Fed speakers on the docket include Bullard, Harker, Daly, Barkin and Kashkari.
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