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Early analyst view changes

BOE
  • We will release our full BOE review later but will highlight now the large swing in analyst expectations towards a 4.25% terminal rate.
  • So far we have read through 19 sellside reviews and 14 of those now look for a 4.25% terminal rate (double the 7 prior to the meeting).
  • Switching from 4.50% to 4.25%: Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs
  • Switching from 4.00% to 4.25%: Berenberg, CIBC, Morgan Stanley
  • Switching from 3.75% to 4.25%: RBC
  • For the March meeting SocGen looks for a 50bp hike, Pantheon for an on hold decision and UniCredit isn't committing between on hold and a 25bp hike. All other analysts reviews we have read so far look for a 25bp hike.

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