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Early Bond Bid Evaporates, US$ Climbs Back To Nov 2020 levels

US TSYS
Rates finish mixed, yield curves reversed early flattening as long end support continued to evaporate after August pending home sales beat expectations 119.5 vs. 110.5 in Jul: +8.1% vs. +1.3% est.
  • Equities held modest gains, while USD climbed to Nov 2020 lvl -- historical tie-in to election just coincidence. Steady climb on same underlying catalyst behind curve steepening: Fed decision prompting markets to price in sooner, steeper policy normalization.
  • No Market reaction on more or less consensus policy remarks as Philly Fed Pres Harker (non voter) penciling in first Covid-era interest rate increase for late next year or early 2023, after QE tapering is complete. Harker added that "it will soon be time" to begin to wind down the USD120B monthly asset purchase program, as QE kept markets functioning during the crisis but "aren't doing much -- or anything -- to ameliorate" labor shortages.
  • SF Fed Daly sees by the end of this year, while conditions for raising near-zero interest rates will likely remain out of reach through 2022.
  • Focus on Thu's weekly claims, GDP and at least seven additional Fed speakers Thu including Fed Chair Powell &Tsy Sec Yellen House Panel testimony.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 0.297%, 5-Yr is down 0.8bps at 1.0115%, 10-Yr is up 0.7bps at 1.5444%, and 30-Yr is up 0.9bps at 2.0953%.
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