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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
ECB-dated OIS looked through familiar dovish comments from Greek Central Bank chief Stournaras, while Vice President de Guindos once again pointed to the “open question” re: the post-summer break September meeting, while alluding to some signs of softening in still strong underlying price pressures. De Guindos then underscored the Bank’s data-dependent stance, stressing that the job is not done (with a focus on services inflation and labour costs), also noting that the impact of the already delivered tightening is starting to filter through into parts of the real economy.
- That leaves ECB-dated OIS pricing familiar degrees of tightening across the next couple of meetings, with the liquid contracts -/+2bp vs. yesterday’s closing levels, in most cases more than reversing the early Friday downtick.
- Terminal deposit rate pricing sits just above 4.05% after threatening to break above 4.10% during yesterday’s U.S.-data inspired run higher, with the strip moving higher and steeper on the week
- Comments from ECB President Lagarde headline the regional docket ahead of the weekend, while the impending U.S. NFP release has plenty of market moving potential.
| ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-23 | 3.635 | +22.9 |
| Sep-23 | 3.806 | +40.0 |
| Oct-23 | 3.893 | +48.7 |
| Dec-23 | 3.955 | +54.9 |
| Jan-24 | 3.965 | +55.9 |
| Mar-24 | 3.943 | +53.7 |
| Apr-24 | 3.893 | +48.7 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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