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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
ECB-dated OIS is little changed to a touch firmer vs. levels seen ahead of national German CPI data. The headline CPI print (+6.1 Y/Y) was largely in line with what the early regional data implied (we pencilled in a +6.12% print in the wake of the state releases accounting for 88% of the national reading). Elsewhere, the HICP reading was a little softer than most pencilled in after this morning’s regional CPI releases.
- ECB speak has failed to move the needle thus far:
- Vice President de Guindos pointed to the growing importance of liquidity re: the banking sector, while warning of impending volatility in headline inflation and a need to focus on core inflation as a result.
- Bank of France chief Villeroy pointed to the peak of French inflation being in the rear-view along with the need to reman “mobilised” when it came to monetary policy.
- Bank of Italy Governor Visco highlighted that inflation remains above target, although provided the usual dovish caveats as he noted that Bank mist take care to avoid an excessive hit to the economy, which will require the correct degree of “graduality.”
- Finally, Governing Council member Muller reiterated his outlook for monetary policy.
- Looking ahead, ECB President Lagarde is due to face a Q&A from high-school students at the final award ceremony of the Generation €uro Students' Award competition, although the arena may limit the scope for meaningful monetary policy communique. We are also set to hear from ECB’s Holzmann.
| ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-23 | 3.387 | +23.9 |
| Jul-23 | 3.569 | +42.1 |
| Sep-23 | 3.633 | +48.5 |
| Oct-23 | 3.634 | +48.6 |
| Dec-23 | 3.616 | +46.8 |
| Jan-24 | 3.544 | +39.6 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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