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Early Flattening Reverses

US TSYS SUMMARY

A choppy start to the week for Tsys, with equities and the dollar a little weaker as we get back into a higher gear following the holiday period.

  • Curve continued to flatten from Wednesday's steepest levels, but that's reversed in the last hour.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.1544%, 5-Yr is up 0.9bps at 0.3734%, 10-Yr is up 1.5bps at 0.852%, and 30-Yr is up 1.2bps at 1.5816%.* Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) down 3/32 at 138-3 (L: 138-03 / H: 138-08)
  • Month-end today and the outlook is for fairly +ve extensions (Tsy index +0.16 per BBG/Barclays) supporting Tsys. It's also first notice day for Dec20s and as implied above, Mar21 is the active futures contract.
  • Data resumes today: MNI Chicago PMI at 0945ET, with pending home sales at 1000ET and Dallas Fed manufacturing at 0930ET.
  • Richmond's Barkin is the only scheduled Fed speaker, at 1200ET.
  • NY Fed buys ~$1.75B of 20-30Y Tsys, and also releases its next forward schedule at 1500ET.
  • Supply consists of 13-/26-wk bills for a combined $105B (1130ET).
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