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Early Losses Pared, ISM Services and Powell In The Spotlight

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields sit 1-1.5bp higher on the day, within yesterday’s range as they mostly consolidate the twist steepening that has pushed 2s10s up to -33.5bps.
  • TYM4 at 109-22+ (-00+) is off earlier lows of 109-18 after another overnight of above average volumes, currently at 380k. Yesterday saw clearance of the bear trigger at 109-24+ (Mar 18 low) before a test of next support at 109-14+ (Nov 28 low). Further support is seen nearby at 109-12+ (1.764 proj of Dec 27 – Jan 19 – Feb 1 price swing).
  • ADP could offer some volatility before the main data focus on ISM Services after a large reaction to Easter Monday’s ISM Mfg beat. Attention then shifts to Chair Powell’s remarks.
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET), ADP employment Mar (0815ET), S&P Global US Serv/Comp PMI Mar f (0945ET), ISM services Mar (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Bostic on CNBC (0830ET), Bowman on regulatory matters (0945ET), Goolsbee opening remarks (1200ET), Powell on economic outlook (1210ET), Barr on Community Reinvestment Act (1310ET), Kugler on economic and mon pol outlook (1630ET).
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)
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