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Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

US TSYS

Mixed SOFR and Treasury option trade overnight leaning toward upside calls and call spreads with underlying futures firmer. Rate hike projections into early 2024 continues to ebb despite continued hawkish Fed messaging: November at 18.6% w/ implied rate change of +4.7bp to 5.374%, December cumulative of 10.2bp at 5.430%, January 2024 11.0bp at 5.438%. Fed terminal at 5.44% in Feb'24.

  • SOFR Options:
    • 3,000 SFRF4 94.62/94.75/94.87/95.00 call condors ref 94.62
    • 3,500 SFRH4 94.75/94.87/95.00/95.12 call condors ref 94.62
    • 1,450 SFRZ3 94.25/94.32/94.38/94.43 put condors
    • 1,500 0QV3 95.25 puts vs. 0QV3 95.62/95.87 call spds on 1x2 basis, ref 95.395
  • Treasury Options:
    • over 3,700 USX3 114 puts, 122 last
    • over 4,500 TYZ3 113 calls, 9 last
    • 3,000 TYZ3 108/109.5 put spds ref 108-14
    • 2,500 FVX3 105.5/106.5 call spds ref 105-13.5
    • 3,700 TYZ3 113/115 call spds ref 108-14
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