Early Upside Momentum Evident, BoJ Jan Minutes Noted Risks of Delaying NIRP Exit

The early impetus in JGB futures (JBM4) has been to the topside, although we haven't been able to breach the 145.70 level. We were last at 145.68, +.28.

• Positive spill over is evident from US futures, with the 10yr up to recent highs at 110.29+ +05+. The broader back drop around core yields has been to soften post recent dovish central bank tilts from the SNB and BOE (late last week).
• Cash JGB yields are mostly lower, although more so at the back end. The 10yr is off around 1.5bps to 0.726%. The 2yr is only down a touch, last at 0.202%. The 10yr swap rate was last at 0.86%, off by around 1.5bps as well.
• We have had the BoJ Jan minutes released, but they are largely superseded by actions at last week's Mar policy meeting, where NIRP was exited.
• They noted the risks of not moving soon in terms of rates could mean more aggressive action later on. They also noted that easy conditions, along with bond buying, would be maintained if exit from NIRP was delivered.
• Note we also have the enhanced liquidity auction later as well for the 1-5yr tenor.