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FOREX: Early USD Gains Reverse in Low Conviction Session

FOREX
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USD had traded firmer through the European open, but much of that progress is reversing here - putting USD toward the bottom end of the G10 table in recent trade. Headlines remain few and far between - leaving markets with little conviction and, quite clearly, subject to non-directional trade.

  • GBP gains have slightly run out of steam, however GBP/USD remains either side of the 1.2900 handle as markets continue to parse reports of incoming budget and spending cuts in the UK ahead of the March 26th Spring Statement. GBP is nonetheless among the poorest performers on the session.
  • A solid set of Norwegian inflation numbers this morning has underpinned a rally in NOK, which outstrips all others in G10. Outdoing the higher-than-expected Swedish inflation print last week, underlying CPI in Norway lurched to 3.4% vs. Exp. 2.9% - a data outturn that's likely to pressure those looking for Norges Bank rate cuts as soon as this month's decision.
  • EUR/NOK has slipped toward the lower half of this year's range, but support at 11.5738 needs to be taken out before the February and YTD lows can be considered at 11.5413.
  • Markets look ahead to the US CPI, PPI releases later this week, with NY Fed inflation expectations the sole US release. The Fed are now inside their pre-meeting media blackout period - meaning no monpol headlines are to cross for the next 10 days or so. ECB's Nagel is set to speak on German growth later today.
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USD had traded firmer through the European open, but much of that progress is reversing here - putting USD toward the bottom end of the G10 table in recent trade. Headlines remain few and far between - leaving markets with little conviction and, quite clearly, subject to non-directional trade.

  • GBP gains have slightly run out of steam, however GBP/USD remains either side of the 1.2900 handle as markets continue to parse reports of incoming budget and spending cuts in the UK ahead of the March 26th Spring Statement. GBP is nonetheless among the poorest performers on the session.
  • A solid set of Norwegian inflation numbers this morning has underpinned a rally in NOK, which outstrips all others in G10. Outdoing the higher-than-expected Swedish inflation print last week, underlying CPI in Norway lurched to 3.4% vs. Exp. 2.9% - a data outturn that's likely to pressure those looking for Norges Bank rate cuts as soon as this month's decision.
  • EUR/NOK has slipped toward the lower half of this year's range, but support at 11.5738 needs to be taken out before the February and YTD lows can be considered at 11.5413.
  • Markets look ahead to the US CPI, PPI releases later this week, with NY Fed inflation expectations the sole US release. The Fed are now inside their pre-meeting media blackout period - meaning no monpol headlines are to cross for the next 10 days or so. ECB's Nagel is set to speak on German growth later today.