Easter Timing Buoys March Food Retail Sales

BRC-KPMG March retail sales rose 3.5% Y/Y, with the early Easter weekend helping sales (especially food products) increase versus February’s 1.1% Y/Y print. Like-for-like sales rose 3.2% Y/Y (vs 1.0% prior).

• By comparison, the total sales in both March and April 2023 came in at 5.1% Y/Y while like-for-like sales were 4.9% Y/Y in March 2023 and 5.2% Y/Y in April 2023.
• The three like-for-like Y/Y forecasts submitted to Bloomberg (as of 1000GMT on Monday April 8) were 1.2%, 1.8% and 2.9% Y/Y.
• On a 3m Y/Y basis, like-for-like sales rose 2.0% (vs 1.5% prior), with food sales rising 6.4% (vs 5.8% prior) and non-food sales falling -2.9% (vs -2.9% prior) versus the previous 3-month period.
• Food sales unsurprisingly contributed the most to total sales growth in March (see chart below).
• The press release notes that a better read on UK retail sector performance will be available following next month’s data, with businesses facing increased cost pressures from minimum wage and business rate increases from April.