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ECB And BoE Pricing Gains Ground As Sintra Gets Underway

STIR

BoE terminal Bank rate pricing hit a fresh high of 6.31% Tuesday while the ECB equivalent ticked above 4% for the first time since Jun 22.

  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +3.7bp to 4% (51bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). Between strong US data, hawkish-leaning ECB comments from Sintra (including an MNI interview with a typically hawkish Wunsch), and anticipation of June inflation readings starting tomorrow with Italy (MNI's Eurozone Inflation preview is here), terminal pricing reclaimed a 4.00% handle, with 23bp priced in for the July meeting.
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +5.1bp to 6.27% (127bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Feb 2024). BoE hike pricing edged higher too, spurred by similar factors as the ECB rate strip, though receded slightly from session highs. Of the 127bp currently implied by OIS between now and Feb 2023, 46bp remains priced for the August meeting, resisting BoE dove Dhingra's attempts to talk down inflation risks today. We get appearances from BoE's Pill and Bailey tomorrow.


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