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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
The recent divergence in ECB and BoE implied cut pricing widened further Monday.
- There are now 129bp of ECB cuts implied over 2024 (from the Dec 2023 peak), after a modest (2bp) rise today, though that had been as high as 134bp at one point in the session.
- April 2024 remains the timing for the first cumulatively fully priced 25bp rate cut, though March is still seen as a high probability (between 75-80%). The first 50bp of cuts is fully priced through the June meeting, with 75bp through July and a fourth by September (104bp implied).
- BoE implied cuts in contrast fell back by 10bp today (taken as 1 year from the expected Feb/Mar 2024 peak) to 89bp.
- The first cut is back to being priced by August 2024 (vs June 2024 on Friday), with the first 50bp of cuts not seen cumulatively until November.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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