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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
ECB and BoE terminal hike pricing ended the week up off their peaks but still well up on the week - respectively, +12bp and +22bp. Today's changes:
- ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -0.6bp to 3.91% (46bp of further hikes left in the cycle). The slight dip in rates (after Thursday's 10bp rise) comes as ECB speakers emphasised data dependence and were noncommittal on hikes beyond the July tightening that Lagarde all but promised yesterday.
- Among today's speakers: Nagel said "we still have more ground to cover", Rehn noted tightening will continue in "at least" July, Holzmann, Vasle and Simkus saw potential for a September hike to varying degrees (though Holzmann was seen as more dovish than usual on this front); Wunsch said the ECB may have to hike in September and perhaps beyond. The more cautious included Centeno and Villeroy.
- BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -3.4bp to 5.76% (132bp of further hikes left in the cycle). That's about 9bp off the week's peak. Attention is on UK CPI next Wednesday, just ahead of the BoE decision (+25.4bp priced, with 50bp hike prospects seemingly falling away from 20+% seen earlier this week).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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