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MNI Asia Pac Weekly Macro Wrap

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes and events for Asia Pac markets
USCentral Bank NewsHomepageFederal ReserveAPACJapanAustraliaNew ZealandSouth KoreaStoryChinaMarketsNorth America

MNI (SYDNEY) - Executive Summary:

  • JAPAN
  • This week’s National CPI showed slightly firmer core CPI pressures relative to expectations. This reinforced focus on the Dec policy meeting, which BoJ Governor Ueda stated couldn’t be predicted at this stage. Activity outcomes were mixed this past week.  
     
  • AUSTRALIA
  • The RBA November meeting minutes noted that “more than one good quarterly inflation outcome” would be needed for it to be “confident” that inflation was sustainably returning to target, if it turned out that the temporarily lower headline inflation resulted in a greater drop in inflation expectations and indexation.
     
  • NEW ZEALAND
  • Both the services and manufacturing performance indices remained below the 50-breakeven level in October signalling that activity continued to contract. Another 50bp RBNZ rate cut is expected on November 27 as the economy remains weak and inflation expectations contained.
     
  • SHORT TERM RATES
  • In the $-bloc, rate expectations through July 2025 remained largely steady over the past week, with the exception of Canada, which saw a 13bps firming. The U.S. firmed by 3bps, while Australia and New Zealand softened slightly, by 1-2bps.
     
  • CHINA
  • China macro news has been light this past week. We argued that there is a strong case for China government bonds in a global portfolio, given low correlations with US moves. 
     
  • SOUTH KOREA
  • South Korean exports for the first part of Nov provide some positives to the growth outlook, but focus remains on supporting domestic conditions. Next week we have the BoK outcome, which is likely on hold though.
     
  • ASIA
  • Q3 Thai GDP printed higher than expected rising 1.2% q/q to be up 3.0% y/y after 0.8% q/q and 2.2% y/y in Q2. The consumer continued to slow but there was a pickup in government spending and capex growth. The RBI pushed back against easing expectations. BI held policy steady, in light of FX weakness. 
     
  • ASIA EQUITY FLOWS
  • Outflows from EM Asia equities have continued this past week, continuing the trend seen since the US election. 
     
  • GLOBAL
  • South Korean export data this week provided some positive signals for the global trade/growth backdrop. 


PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: weekly macro round up (November 22 2024) .pdf

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MNI (SYDNEY) - Executive Summary:

  • JAPAN
  • This week’s National CPI showed slightly firmer core CPI pressures relative to expectations. This reinforced focus on the Dec policy meeting, which BoJ Governor Ueda stated couldn’t be predicted at this stage. Activity outcomes were mixed this past week.  
     
  • AUSTRALIA
  • The RBA November meeting minutes noted that “more than one good quarterly inflation outcome” would be needed for it to be “confident” that inflation was sustainably returning to target, if it turned out that the temporarily lower headline inflation resulted in a greater drop in inflation expectations and indexation.
     
  • NEW ZEALAND
  • Both the services and manufacturing performance indices remained below the 50-breakeven level in October signalling that activity continued to contract. Another 50bp RBNZ rate cut is expected on November 27 as the economy remains weak and inflation expectations contained.
     
  • SHORT TERM RATES
  • In the $-bloc, rate expectations through July 2025 remained largely steady over the past week, with the exception of Canada, which saw a 13bps firming. The U.S. firmed by 3bps, while Australia and New Zealand softened slightly, by 1-2bps.
     
  • CHINA
  • China macro news has been light this past week. We argued that there is a strong case for China government bonds in a global portfolio, given low correlations with US moves. 
     
  • SOUTH KOREA
  • South Korean exports for the first part of Nov provide some positives to the growth outlook, but focus remains on supporting domestic conditions. Next week we have the BoK outcome, which is likely on hold though.
     
  • ASIA
  • Q3 Thai GDP printed higher than expected rising 1.2% q/q to be up 3.0% y/y after 0.8% q/q and 2.2% y/y in Q2. The consumer continued to slow but there was a pickup in government spending and capex growth. The RBI pushed back against easing expectations. BI held policy steady, in light of FX weakness. 
     
  • ASIA EQUITY FLOWS
  • Outflows from EM Asia equities have continued this past week, continuing the trend seen since the US election. 
     
  • GLOBAL
  • South Korean export data this week provided some positive signals for the global trade/growth backdrop. 


PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: weekly macro round up (November 22 2024) .pdf