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Asia-Pac participants were seemingly happy to buy Monday's USD pullback with the move extending ahead of London hours, leaving EUR/USD -20 pips at $1.1899. A reminder that EUR/USD failed to break through Friday's low on Monday, before rebounding as risk appetite recovered as we moved through the European morning into the NY session.

  • Below the aforementioned Friday/Monday low ($1.1848) focus would fall on $1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement, with any sustained break there opening up $1.1704, the Mar 31 low and a key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at $1.2006, the Jun 17 high.
  • Fedspeak and comments from ECB President Lagarde headlined on Monday, underscoring the divergence between the two central banks, with Lagarde telling a committee within the European Parliament that the ECB has not reached the lower bound in interest rates (as a reminder, ECB chief economist Lane also presented a dovish message on Friday).
  • Comments from Fed officials (headlined by Chair Powell) and various ECB speakers (Lane, Schnabel & Rehn) headline the respective U.S. & European dockets on Tuesday, and could further underscore the differing outlooks at the two central banks.
  • There isn't much in the way of nearby option expiries to worry about for the pair at today's 10AM NY cut, with the nearest notable expiries having a strike of $1.2175. Thursday's 10AM NY cut presents some more interesting expiries (at least vs. current spot levels), with $1.8bn of $1.1800 strikes set to roll off alongside $1.4bn of $1.1920-25 strikes.