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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
ECB rates are priced to rise 110bp from here, to an implied 3.60% depo rate peak in Jul / Sep - that's roughly where it closed Friday, and represents the 2023 high (just below the cycle peak set in late December). That includes a 50bp hike almost fully priced for the March meeting.
- MNI reported last week citing Eurosystem sources that hawkish ECB officials want to push rates higher than 4% this year, but doves see the cycle peak as much as 1 percentage point lower, and are preparing to argue for a slowdown in hikes in May. Current pricing more or less splits the difference.
- There are still modest cuts priced in (~5bp) by year-end, but that's well off the 20-25bp in cuts priced at one point in late Dec / early Jan.
- This is mirroring moves in the US curve which have seen 2023 Fed easing prospects fade alongside the stronger-than-expected January payrolls report.
Source: MNI, BBG, on OIS pricing
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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