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ECB Peak Pricing To 4.00% Pre-Decision; BoE Hikes Further Priced Out

STIR

ECB peak rate pricing ticked higher Wednesday to close at the 4% mark for the first time since mid-July, ahead of Thursday's rate decision which remains a close call. BoE peak pricing hit a fresh 3-month low meanwhile after softer-than-expected UK GDP data.

  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +0.2bp to 4.00% (25bp of further hikes left in the cycle in Dec 2023). A roughly 2-in-3 chance of a 25bp hike is priced in for Thursday's decision, having risen to nearly 3-in-4 in early trade in the wake of a Reuters sources piece late Wednesday pointing to upped inflation forecasts in the Eurosystem staff projections.
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -2.1bp to 5.61% (36bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Feb 2024): There's just 72% priced of a 25bp hike at next week's MPC, down another 4pp today.

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