ECB Pricing Little Change, Sintra Front & Centre

ECB-dated OIS is little changed, with the ECB’s annual Sintra gathering set to dominate the wires from today.

• RTRS have run an interview with Governing Council Member Kazaks. He was a little more forceful, noting that “in my view we will still need to raise rates and I don’t think that in July we’ll be comfortable enough to say: ‘we’re done’. I think rates will need to be raised past July but when and by how much will be data dependent.”
• Elsewhere, Kazaks adopted a familiar tone, arguing that the risks of doing too little outweigh those surrounding doing too much.
• Kazaks once again pushed back against the idea of rate cuts in early ’24, noting “I’d see a need to cut rates when it becomes quite certain that inflation is about to start significantly and persistently undershooting our target of 2%. And not at the end of the forecast period but towards the middle of the forecast period.”
• Sintra-based comments from ECB President Lagarde headline the docket today, while Executive Board members Schnabel, Elderson and Panetta all chair various discussion panels through the morning. Expect plenty of ad hoc commentary from the event in the coming days.