ECB Pricing Little Changed, Just Over 40bp Of ’24 Cuts Priced

ECB-dated OIS is flat, showing ~19bp of cuts through the Sep meeting, virtually a full cut through the Oct decision and ~40.5bp of cumulative cuts through year end.

• Euribor futures are either side of unchanged, -0.5 to -2.0.
• An FT piece has noted that ECB members have warned “that risks including trade tensions and high government debt are piling up.”
• The officials were “broadly in agreement that inflation was heading in the right direction.”
• They also stated that it was too early to speculate about whether they could be forced to intervene in OATs if France suffered a “Liz Truss moment.”
• The piece shouldn’t be a major market mover but gives some deeper insight into the thoughts of several GC members.
• Elsewhere, Bank of Greece Governor Stournaras reiterated his previous view as he noted that 2 further rate cuts in ’24 seem “reasonable.”
• Softer-than-expected German factory orders had no lasting impact
• The accounts of the ECB’s June meeting are due today, with comments from ECB’s Lane & Cipollone also scheduled.
• Swiss CPI data (due 07:30 London) may provide some spill over.
• A U.S. holiday will limit wider liquidity.